Happy 20th birthday to the Marginal Revolution blog, by the way. I remember the first post I saw — an assorted link list featuring a memorable bear-hiker interaction — but of course it is now impossible to find thanks to MRs rudimentary search. It is a blog, through and through.
Here's why.
There was something particularly irksome about a USA Today article from a few days ago — it prompted 3, count them, three tweets posts Xs from me — and I wanted to figure out what bothered me so. Here is the headline:
Left or right arm: Choosing where to get vaccinated matters, study suggests. Here’s why
No, it’s not the typography, although they should either not have had a full sentence in their headline, or else should have finished it with a full stop. But then they would have lost the chance for the click-baity Here’s why as a prelude to an article OK, this can get real confusing real fast since there are two articles I am writing about: the USA Today’s newspaper article, and the research article to which it refers. So, let’s use article for the newspaper, and manuscript for the research article. Because why not? about Real Science™ which — color me astonished — takes a hypothesis-generating study and presents the hypotheses it generated as the final results.
To its credit, the article starts of with a link to the manuscript and the name of the journal where it was published, which is eBioMedicine, part of the proliferating Lancet family, impact factor 11.1. Although, you know what they say about impact factors.Good! They also invited an independent researcher to comment. And I am sure that his comments were similar to mine, although of course most of what he said (or more likely wrote in an email) didn’t make it. What ended up on the page were two blurbs about precise vaccination from the director of a Precision Vaccines program. Gasp.
But these are all side attractions. The biggest problem is this: scientists want to compare people who had a two-dose vaccine shot in the same arm to those who had it in different arms; in the manuscript, these were called ipsilateral and contralateral groups. They aren’t randomizing people to one versus the other, What they describe as randomization isn’t really so, but that’s a rabbit hole we better not get into. but with these being generally healthy people, and with the participants not having a choice as to where they will get a vaccine, that is not too much of an issue. Then they ask them some questions about vaccine side effects and draw some blood. The questions are about side effects and the blood is to check for “the strength of the immune response”.
Note that they don’t say at the outset that the groups would be different, and how. Would the opposite arm have fewer side effects? Better immune response? If so, in what way? More antibody? Stronger antibody? A different subtype of antibody? Better or worse cellular immunity? Which cell (among dozens)? More cells, stronger cells, or different cells? Or maybe the same side would be better?
The beauty of hypothesis-generating research (for the researcher) is that it doesn’t matter. Whatever you get, you will get it published, sometimes in a double-digit impact factor publication. I’ve sat on many a lab meeting where things like this were proposed and always, always, the comment is that “the results will be interesting whatever they are”. And they are right! But you will not know — cannot know — whether the results you got are based on an underlying physiology, or occurred purely by chance. That is where confirmatory studies come in.
Neither the manuscript nor the article recognize this. Among the many things they looked at, the researchers found two things that were different between the two groups: those who had the vaccine in the same arm had “more” of a certain type of immune cell than the other, and the opposite-arm group had increased expression of a certain marker on yet another type of immune cell. “More” is in quotes because even that is more subjective than it appears — another rabbit hole — but even if true in this sample, it is at best a hypothesis that should lead to another, possibly smaller study, where you focus on these cells, with different operators counting them, and doing additional hypothesis-generating analyses on the side to figure out the why of it, which would lead into yet another confirmatory study… You get the idea.
This is not what the manuscript authors propose. Instead they take their result at face value and concoct a mechanism out of thin air that would explain the result. The journalist then takes the mechanism and presents it as the main research result, the Here’s why of that clickbait headline. There is a high bar for calling anything in science conclusive and the article does have the usual disclaimer that “more research and data is needed”. But the phrase has been repeated so much that it has lost all meaning, something you say to mark yourself as a “believer in science” while with a wink and a nudge you act as if the results were indisputable.
Fortunately, science is a strong-link problem: those who know what they are doing will adjust their beliefs accordingly, and down the line confirm or falsify these preliminary findings. Unfortunately, science doesn’t operate in a vacuum. If its covering of science is indicative, journalism, the fourth estate, is in a hole and digging deeper, taking others with them.
The Atlantic has a short (true!) story about DC politics:
“It’s almost like the government’s imposing its will on its residents,” Trayon White, the D.C. council member for Ward 8, said at the council’s June 6 legislative meeting. He wasn’t talking about a proposed highway, a subway station, a power plant, or—perish the thought—an apartment building. He was talking about trees: specifically, three linden trees on Xenia Street planted a few years ago by D.C.’s Urban Forestry Division. To my surprise, the legislative body of a major American city experiencing escalating homelessness and a serious spike in violent crime dedicated a quarter of its time that day to discussing three trees.
To be clear, he wants the linden trees removed! For context: Ward 8 has a single grocery store which may be closed due to increasing costs of security.
Frustration among physicians who feel they are being asked to do increasingly more to prove their competency has been building for years and in recent weeks, boiled over for many. At least 12,000 people have signed a Change.org petition, which is open to anyone. Many added their name after the petition’s organizer resurfaced a July tweet in which ABIM suggested their ongoing certification was so easy, doctors could do it while on vacation.
I have been meaning to write about ABIM’s train wreck ever since I signed the petition, but yet again my proscratination has been awarded: Philadelphia Inquirer says everything I wanted to, and then some. Ding-dong…
The Washington Post's innumeracy (or is it just bad faith) continues
Yet again, The Washington Post is not letting facts get in the way of a good story. This time, under the headline “Credit card debt tops $1 trillion, trapping even six-figure earners” they spin a yarn of high-earners keeping their credit card debt for years as “pet rocks”, not having the discipline to pay them off even as the economy is recovering.
Bankrate found that 72 percent of cardholders with credit card debt and annual household incomes of $100,000 or more have been in debt for at least a year. The percentage drops to 70 percent for households with credit card debt and incomes between $80,000 and $99,999; 63 percent for people earning between $50,000 and $79,999; and 53 percent for folks making under $50,000.
But what do they mean by “credit card debt”?
“More people [are] carrying more debt for longer periods of time,” Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, said. “The stats that we see from the New York Fed and elsewhere, they don’t distinguish typically between what’s paid in full at the end of the month and what’s not.”
The emphasis is mine, and to be clear this is the gist of their story: more households with incomes >$100,000 carry a balance than those who earn less. But why wouldn’t they? Between credit card rewards (cash back, travel points, etc.) incentivizing use even for daily purchases on one end, and the current ≥4% annual yield on low-risk high-interest savings accounts on the other, why wouldn’t high-earning and — let’s speculate — more financially literate households hold off from paying off the balance to $0 and earn 4% interest on what they held off from paying? There is an important distinction between paying off the balance and paying down to zero which the article never makes.
So, how many households have a revolving credit card balance, the one that actually charges interest? The article has some of that information, burried in the lead and with no context:
Overall, nearly half (47 percent) of credit cardholders have revolving debt, meaning they don’t pay off their balance in full.
They, of course, omit the most important part of the story: proportion of households paying of their balance grouped by income. Because — and I’ll speculate some more — there are two stories here, one of lower-income households saddled with debt that’s not a pet rock but a rock tied to their neck, paying off just enough to stay afloat; and the other of some (many? who knows — they didn’t give that data) higher-income households playing the credit card game, which would account for the first quoted paragraph.
James Fallows had a good story about framing in journalism and this is not a direct example — the boo boos are in the story itself, not the headline and positioning — but it rhymes. Spin it in a way that sells, I guess. Simplify to the point of enough ambiguity to support your preordained, attention-grabbing conclusion. Vague phrases and undefined terms, FTW.
A tornado warning for DC, and another day of 80mph winds. The one las week was a doozy! What was the micro.blog climate emoji, again? 🧨?
Update: It was fine.
"The average doctor in the U.S. makes $350,000 a year. Why?"
The Washington Post’s Andrew Van Dam on the average US doctors' salaries:
The average U.S. physician earns $350,000 a year. Top doctors pull in 10 times that.
I will write more about this later but for now I will just note how frustrating it is to read an article that has a premise and conclusion that I completely agree with (America doesn’t have enough doctors so the ones that it does have are compensated way above average) backed up by mishandled and misreported data (first the article doesn’t say whether the “average” is mean or median — it is the median, which is actually good — then doesn’t explicitly mention that the median in question is of the adjusted gross income at the household level, not of individual compensation: the median total individual income is $265,000).
At least the article linked to the NBER paper with all the data, which in turn completely validated my recent quip about economisits. Frustrating throughout, especially if you try reading the comments.
In a scene right out of The Wire, a man was shot while watching a soccer game in Adams Morgan, right next to our kids' old elementary school. In fact, had we not moved a few months ago, it would have been their current ES — this happened not 500 feet from our old back yard, as the crow files.
So anyway, if you cut the police budget, crime goes up. Who knew? (And yes, this continues to annoy.)
This room-temperature superconductor news has potential to be either really big, or just another footnote in the history of physics, but either way the number of hits I got about it from different sources was interesting:
- RSS feeds: 3
- Everything else: 0
RSS wins! Again.
Sometimes, that small print does matter
There is predatory, and then there is predatory:
When Björn Johansson received an email in July 2020 inviting him to speak at an online debate on COVID-19 modeling, he didn’t think twice. “I was interested in the topic and I agreed to participate,” says Johansson, a medical doctor and researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “I thought it was going to be an ordinary academic seminar. It was an easy decision for me.”
…
All the scientists interviewed by Science say Ferensby’s initial messages never mentioned conference fees. When one speaker, Francesco Piazza, a physicist now at the University of Florence, directly asked Ferensby whether the organizers would request a fee, Ferensby replied, “No, we are talking about science and COVID-19.”
But after the events, the speakers were approached by a conference secretary, who asked them to sign and return a license agreement that would give Villa Europa—named in the document as the conference organizer—permission to publish the webinar recordings. Most of the contracts Science has seen state that the researcher must pay the company €790 “for webinar debate fees and open access publication required for the debate proceedings” plus €2785 “to cover editorial work.” These fees are mentioned in a long clause in the last page of the contract, and are written out in words rather than numbers, without any highlighting.
What an absolute nightmare. Predatory journals at least have the decency to ask you for them money up front.
And let’s take a moment to contemplate the ridiculousness of the current academic publishing and conference model. Note that there is nothing unusual in academic conferences requiring attendance fees from speakers. If you have an scientific abstract accepted for oral or poster presentation at ASCO, let’s say, you will still have to pony up for the registration fee. And publication fees for a legitimate open access journal can be north of $3,000. So how is a judge to know whether the organizer’s claims are legitimate?
The difference, of course, is that the good ones — both journals and conferences — don’t solicit submissions; you have to beg them to take your money. Which only makes the situation more ridiculous, not less.