When “I don’t think I need to say much more” is followed by two more paragraphs of text the writer is not making the point they think they are making. The text in question is a defense of plagiarism which amounts to “what I copied wasn’t that original to begin with”. Hardy-har-har. (ᔥNassim Taleb)

The Department of Justice is just asking questions:

A federal prosecutor sent a letter to a medical journal editor, probing whether the publication is “partisan” when it comes to “various scientific debates.”

Edward R. Martin Jr., U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, sent a list of questions to CHEST Editor-in-Chief Peter Mazzone, MD, MPH, of the Cleveland Clinic, asking how the journal handles “misinformation” and “competing viewpoints,” among other things.

MedPage Today has learned that at least two other journals have received similar letters.

The Clinton administration bombed Yugoslavia under the thinnest of pretenses; his successor one-upped him. The Obama campaign used “Big Data” to target individual voters; his successor one-upped him. The Biden administration cloaked their attempts at censoring social media under the guise of “misinformation”; and, well, see above.

For every hair-raising breakdown of values and norms there is a precedent, and time and again the precedent has been set by the same side, with remarkable shortsightedness.

Richard Feynman popularized the term “cargo-cult science” as actions of research who follow the form but not showing much if any care for the substance of science. Andrew Gelman has second thoughts about the metaphor and proposes “ritual science” instead, and for good reason: cargo-cult implies a technological gap that may be impossible to bridge, while he uses ritual here to mean mindless repetition.

The maneuver does throw rituals under the bus, as proper rituals are far from mindless. Still, this is indeed how the word “ritual” is used colloquially so Gelman is on the right track. “Mindless science” would also cover the phenomena though is too broad: science — or rather, scientists — can be mindless in other ways. (ᔥAndrew Gelman)

With 23andMe closing shop today and the bluebird bio sale to private equity last month it is clear that the DNA bubble has burst.

Every bubble leaves something positive in its wake. Yes, there was a lot of speculation with tulips in the Netherlands, but the Netherlands is still the world’s top exporter of cut flowers. There was a railway bubble in the United States that left us with a lot of railroad tracks and not so great passenger rail. More recently, the dot-com bubble left decent network infrastructure and a lot of IT professionals with nothing better to do than to invent Web 2.0.

And so with DNA. Sequencing has never been cheaper, and it does have some valid uses. Unfortunately, there are many harms of fetishizing DNA, from thinking that DNA mutations are the be-all and end-all of every disease pathology — think, “the fat gene” — to completely missing the point of the entire field of epigenetics, which has much more to it than molecular changes to histones and base pairs.

Business and finance are now the first to realize that there is more to genetics than DNA, and more to medicine than genetics. Academia and funders, ossified as they are, will be slower on the uptake and come to this epiphany one retirement at a time.

Earlier this year I mentioned the anonymous X account Crémieux as a proponent of the concept of “National IQ”. Now we know the person behind that account, and the truth is in fact quite boring. This is the line between having a pseudonym and creating a sock puppet. (↬Sasha Gusev)

Today’s FT essay on the rise of the anti-vaccine movement was a miss. Instead of asking why so many people lost trust in institutions it goes straight to politics: 10 paragraphs on Germany’s AfD, no mention of whether some of the people’s concerns were valid. With that, the movement can only grow.

Also on that other site: Grok 3. I wish I could say it was pure hype and bragging from a man-child in need of attention. Alas it’s the real deal: it gave me less BS, and faster, to my now standard set of querries. Brave new world, etc.

The “Real World Risk Institute” — RWRI — is Nassim Taleb’s answer to the question of what his Incerto would look like if it were a course. The twentieth workshop starts on July 7 and lasts for 2 weeks. This is what I wrote on that other site in response to the announcement:

Strongly endorse. Took the first one in July 2020 and if it weren’t for it I’d still be a federal employee on a visa. It’s not the knowledge you get (you have the Inecrto (sic!) for that), it’s the thinking

And I meant every misspelled word. Go if you have time: scholarships are available, math is not required.

The headline: “Cheap blood test detects pancreatic cancer before it spreads”.

The reality:

The nanosensor correctly identified healthy individuals 98% of the time, and identified people with pancreatic cancer with 73% accuracy. It always distinguished between individuals with cancer and those with other pancreatic diseases.

The 98% number means that two out of 100 healthy people who take the test would have a false positive result. It also misses more than 20 out of 100 people with cancer, giving them a false sense of security. If used in a mostly healthy population — a reasonable assumption to make for a screening test — a positive result would more likely than not be a false positive, and yet you would still miss plenty of actual cancers.

These are abysmal assay characteristics and the test should never see clinic, but you would never know it from the headline. (↬Tyler Cowen)

One query in, I am convinced of the value of Deep Research and think it is well worth the $200 per month. The sources are real, the narrative less fluffy, the points it makes cogent. The narrative review is not dead yet, but it is on its way out. Here I am thinking about those reviews that are made to pad junior researchers CVs while they are introducing themselves to a field, neutral in tone and seemingly comprehensive in scope. There will always be a place for an opinionated perspective from a leader in the field.

In a year, the AI algorithms went from an overeager undergrad to a competent graduate student in every field of science, natural or social. Would o3 make this into a post-doc able and willing to go down every and any rabbit hole? Even now two hundred dollars per month is a bargain — if the price stays the same with next generation models it will be a steal.

The one snag is that it is all centralized, and yes the not so open OpenAI sees all your questions and knows what you want. For now. Local processing is a few years behind, so what is preventing nVidia or Apple or whomever from putting all its efforts into catching up? How much would you pay for your own server that would give its in-depth reports more slowly — say 30 minutes instead of 5 — but be completely private? And without needing benefits, travel and lodging to conferences or any of the messy HR stuff.

The brave new world is galloping ahead.

(↬Tyler Cowen)