• From the ever-excellent Kyla Scanlon: How AI, Healthcare, and Labubu Became the American Economy
• From a good friend, Timothée Olivier: Can I confidently say to patients that a 3-year structured exercise program may save their lives?
• From the recently-returned-to-blogging Thomas Basbøl: A simple test
• From the never-stopped-blogging Derek Lowe: In Praise of Weirdness
• From Dorothy L. Sayers, written in 1947, and touching upon everything above: The lost tools of learning

Happy Friday, etc.

• Razor, Gun, Fence and American, both from Kieran Healy
• The Paradox of India from Samir Varma (ᔥTyler Cowen (as a good example see Strategic Ambiguity as Wisdom: “Not everything needs to be defined, categorized, and resolved. Sometimes the wisest response is a head waggle that means yes, no, and maybe all at once.”. Indeed.)
• The growth and collapse of autonomy at work (after age forty, feelings of career autonomy apparently tend to decline; perhaps for some)
• Fortune Dark, a TTRPG system with an update here

• How to travel from Janan Ganesh (I agree with most, and the discerning reader should have no trouble identifying the minor point of disagreement)
• Journal articles are trying to do six things at once — no wonder they’re unreadable (yes!)
• Is atheism like a point null hypothesis? and other thoughts on religion (Tyler Cowen was correct)
• The Sacrifices We Choose to Make from Michael Nielsen (in the same vein as the above)
• The Herd of Independent Minds: Has the Avant-Garde Its Own Mass Culture? (written in 1948, but more and more herds of ever-more independent minds are still roaming)

• From the FT Editorial Board: The risk of letting AI do your thinking (the only nit I have to pick here is that by “AI” the esteemed Board means “LLMs” or, if you want to be kind and stretch the definition of intelligence, “generative AI”)
• From Dave Winer: AI should behave like a computer (see previous note)
• From a person on the Internet: Cognitive Hygiene: Why You Need to Make Thinking Hard Again (file under YouTube videos that should have been blog posts)
• From Michael Lopp: Every Single Human. Like. Always. (subtitle: The robots… They did the thing.)

And with these four links I hereby declare a moratorium on LLM-related matters on this blog, until further notice.

• Vinay Prasad Is a Bernie Sanders Acolyte in MAHA Drag (Apologies for linking to the WSJ. Please file it under “textbook hit piece”, that worked.)
• Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market (From Kyla Scanlon, whose substack blog is a jewel.)
• Design Your Own Rug! (We just came back from Istanbul, where rugs are no longer made by hand and the ones who are sold as such were made 40+ years ago and “refreshed. These are from Afghanistan and are “only” around $1K.)
• Belgrad Forest on Wikipedia (Speaking of Istanbul, the forest closest to it was named after the village next to it, “settled by thousands of Serbs who were deported to the capital Constantinople from the city of Belgrade in 1521” — to maintain a millennium-old Byzantine aqueduct. Please file it under “isn’t history fascinating”.)

• Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future, an intro to this book that will make its way onto the pile as soon as it comes out
• Inclusivity In Healthcare Should Not Be Valued Above Our Paramount Mandate: First, Do No Harm (controversial?)
• New capitalism III: Capital from Branko Milanović, who should be on the short list for the “Nobel” in economics for this series of posts alone
• Things: The Surprising Power of Stuff That Exists is a brilliant description of every book Malcolm Gladwell and his lookalikes ever published

Note: While these link posts are usually untitled, this one is in reference to recent troubles at the Marginal Revolution blog. Isn’t HTML great?

Casey Handmer on LLMs:

Every time one of the labs releases an updated model I give it a thorough shakedown on physics, in the style of the oral examination that is still used in Europe and a few other places. Claude, Grok, Gemini, and GPT are all advancing by leaps and bounds on a wide variety of evals, some of which include rather advanced or technical questions in both math and science, including Physics Olympiad-style problems, or grad school qualifying exams.

And yet, none of these models would be able to pass the physicist Turing test. It’s not even a matter of knowledge, I know of reasonably talented middle schoolers with no specialized physics training who could reason and infer on some of these basic questions in a much more fluent and intuitive way.

Alexander the Great had Aristotle, some poor kid will have a brain-dead version of Wheatley.

(Casey’s post is deeper than simple LLM-trashing for he gives the actual 8-step process of reasoning through physics problems, so please do read the whole thing.)

In what feels like a troll but is in all likelihood completely serious, some parents are deciding to have their children fully immersed in AI LLMs:

We’re declaring bankruptcy on humans. Bring on the AI. In addition to integrating AI into as many facets of our lives as possible (our health, our work, our entertainment, and our personal lives), we’re designing an AI-integrated childhood for our kids—all while feeling like we’re helping them dodge a major bullet.

Did CS Lewis suspect, when he wrote The Abolition of Man, that the anti-human sentiment would be expressed as freely and overtly as the first sentence of this intellectually bankrupt paragraph? A paragraph that would be horrifying even if the AI it touts was actual intelligence, an AGI, but what these families are actually immersing themselves in is industrial-grade bullshit. As useful as bullshit can be — I hear it makes for great fertilizer! — one should not drink it as one would do Kool-Aid.

Nick Maggiulli on why the upper middle class isn’t special anymore:

Picture it. You’re at one of the nicest resorts in one of the most prized vacation destinations in the world and there are literal millionaires scrambling to get pool chairs at 8AM. What the hell is going on?

I’ll tell you. The upper middle class is getting too big. There are too many people who are millionaires and multi-millionaires and there simply isn’t enough space to accommodate them. Why do you think the Amex lounge is a zoo? Why do you think house prices haven’t come down? Why do you think vacations evolved into cut throat competitions?

Because there are too many people with lots of money.

I think he is onto something, for here is Jennifer Bradley Franklin of the NYT writing about $9,000 jigsaw puzzles:

Christine Murphy thinks she has a problem.

The 42-year-old grant writer and novelist has more than 150 puzzles in her collection at home in Portland, Maine, approximately 50 of which are hand-cut hardwood. She has one in progress at all times, and works on it every day.

“If I don’t get to do it, I get a bit glum,” she said. “I would happily do nothing but massive, thousand-piece hand-cut puzzles.” But, she added, referring to their price: “My God, those are multiple mortgage payments. It’s like a couture puzzle.”

…

A Stave Puzzles 800-piece limited edition costs $8,495 (on sale from $8,995). Orders from the company, founded in 1974, go up from there. A recent order from a single customer was close to $40,000, said Paula Tardie, an owner of Stave. “We have done wedding favors, puzzles for opening night gifts for Broadway shows and some very large puzzles for family reunions.”

“We have a couple of customers who, in the last decade, have spent over $500,000 with us,” said Mr. Danner of Elms.

If $9K can’t even get you a decent resort holiday, blowing it all an puzzles is as good as anything.

Two unrelated articles about AI greeted me from the feed reader this morning:

• Context, Memory, and Voice by Michael Lopp
• Emerson, AI, and The Force by Neal Stephenson

Both are worth reading, and Stephenson’s in particular may lead you down some nice rabbit holes owing to his profuse linking.