In the story of Spanish solar power, the FT finds a country with energy abundance and doesn’t like what it sees. A few choice quotes:

Pedro Sánchez calls his country a ‘global benchmark’ in the transition to greener energy, but prices — and profits — have plunged.

Spain has built so much solar capacity that at certain times of day it produces far more electricity than it needs. Prices have plunged as a result, dragging down owners’ profits with them.

Free power is gratifying for customers, but bad for generators.

Etc, etc. Good for Spain! The monetary matters will settle themselves out.

There is banger after banger in the most recent weekend edition of the FT, which is apparently Steve Bannon’s favorite newspaper:

• Sunday at the garden party for Curtis Yarvin and the new, new right, in which the FT columnist Jemima Kelley meets some interesting people.

Cave turns to me. “So what’s your skill then, spinning stuff into a story?”

“No,” I reply. “My skill is keeping a straight face when someone tells me something, and inside I’m thinking: fucking hell.”

• Don’t mourn the golden age of TV from Janan Ganesh, and I am in general agreement.
• The magic of childhood in the Netherlands from Simon Kuper, and as an uncle to a couple of mostly-Dutch children I tend to agree.
• Why England’s new towns should look to medieval France, which made me drool.

All gift links with limited activations, so enjoy while you can!

Well that was fast:

“At the FDA’s request, Dr. Vinay Prasad is resuming leadership of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research,” HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon said. “Neither the White House nor HHS will allow the fake news media to distract from the critical work the FDA is carrying out under the Trump administration.”

Maybe lobbying isn’t as effective as I thought? I am sure there are stories to be told about what happened during these two weeks.

Here are a few good comments on what recently happened at the FDA:

• Washington Post: What the ouster of a top FDA regulator shows about Trump world divisions
• The Atlantic: The Man Who Was Too MAHA for the Trump Administration
• Science: Vinay Prasad: That Was Fast

V(inay) P(rasad)’s ouster was clearly death by lobbyists, but then they had plenty of fodder. The current administration does seem to be going for a mid-to-late 19th century vibe in many ways, and this is one of them. Sure, Ulysses Grant probably didn’t coin the word, but isn’t that the peak period when those who had the president’s ear could get things done quickly and blatantly? Whether that excites you or scares you, well, that depends on what kind of person you are and what you do for a living.

Selfishly speaking, it will be good to see VP back publishing oncology papers. Here is a recent one about informative censoring in clinical trials, with a lay summary here. More of that, please.

The most recent issue of the FT Weekend Magazine is about games of all kinds, but the highlight is a massive article about the tragedy of Disco Elysium. It is depressing throughout, with a glimmer of hope buried near the end:

Kurvitz is making his next game at a new studio, Red Info, with Aleksander Rostov, Helen Hindpere and Chris Avellone, lead writer of the 1999 video game Planescape: Torment, a huge influence on Disco. “[Kurvitz] felt that Disco was the project in his head, and once he was cut off from the franchise, he was worried he didn’t have any other ideas in him,” Avellone told me. “I felt that was bullshit . . . Robert’s too creative to simply ‘not’ create something or rely on a single world idea in his head.”

Creators of Planescape: Torment and Disco Elysium working together on a new game? Be still, my heart.

A version of Poisoning Pigeons in the Park was the first mp3 I downloaded and played — on Winamp, of course — some time in the mid 1990s, spurred by an episode of Chicago Hope of all things. R.I.P. Tom Lehrer.

Nick Maggiulli on why the upper middle class isn’t special anymore:

Picture it. You’re at one of the nicest resorts in one of the most prized vacation destinations in the world and there are literal millionaires scrambling to get pool chairs at 8AM. What the hell is going on?

I’ll tell you. The upper middle class is getting too big. There are too many people who are millionaires and multi-millionaires and there simply isn’t enough space to accommodate them. Why do you think the Amex lounge is a zoo? Why do you think house prices haven’t come down? Why do you think vacations evolved into cut throat competitions?

Because there are too many people with lots of money.

I think he is onto something, for here is Jennifer Bradley Franklin of the NYT writing about $9,000 jigsaw puzzles:

Christine Murphy thinks she has a problem.

The 42-year-old grant writer and novelist has more than 150 puzzles in her collection at home in Portland, Maine, approximately 50 of which are hand-cut hardwood. She has one in progress at all times, and works on it every day.

“If I don’t get to do it, I get a bit glum,” she said. “I would happily do nothing but massive, thousand-piece hand-cut puzzles.” But, she added, referring to their price: “My God, those are multiple mortgage payments. It’s like a couture puzzle.”

…

A Stave Puzzles 800-piece limited edition costs $8,495 (on sale from $8,995). Orders from the company, founded in 1974, go up from there. A recent order from a single customer was close to $40,000, said Paula Tardie, an owner of Stave. “We have done wedding favors, puzzles for opening night gifts for Broadway shows and some very large puzzles for family reunions.”

“We have a couple of customers who, in the last decade, have spent over $500,000 with us,” said Mr. Danner of Elms.

If $9K can’t even get you a decent resort holiday, blowing it all an puzzles is as good as anything.

A few choice excerpts from a NYT investigation, Medicare Bleeds Billions on Pricey Bandages, and Doctors Get a Cut:

For one patient in Nevada, Medicare spent $14 million on skin substitutes over the course of a year, according to billing records reviewed by The Times. The wound of a patient in Washington State persisted after Medicare paid $6 million for the coverings. A man in Texas got $1.3 million of bandages despite having no wound at all.

Five years ago, the most expensive skin substitute cost $1,042 per square inch, while some were as cheap as $45. Today, the three most expensive products on the market each cost more than $21,000. (Samaritan Biologics, a company in Memphis that sells the three products, did not answer questions about why they cost so much.)

For the first six months of a new bandage product’s life, Medicare will set the reimbursement rate at whatever price a company chooses. After that, the agency adjusts the reimbursement to reflect the actual price paid by doctors after any discounts.

To circumvent the reimbursement drop, some companies simply roll out new products.

The doctor who earned the most for skin substitutes last year was Dr. Aaron Jeng of Southern California, according to Early Read’s analysis. Medicare paid him $117 million. (Dr. Jeng declined to comment.)

Another high earner, Dr. Stephen Dubin of Las Vegas, was paid $17 million by Medicare for skin substitutes in 2024. (He estimated that after expenses, he took home roughly $4 million.) Dr. Dubin retired at the end of last year, in part, he said, because of increased competition for wound patients. Sometimes he would show up at a patient’s home only to find that someone from a different clinic had placed a new skin substitute the day before.

The article is 3 months old but still relevant: a day after it came out the administration announced that it was indeed delaying implementation of the new reimbursement rules until 2026. Wouldn’t it be neat if there were a government department that deals with this kind of fraud, waste and abuse?

The FT and NYT both have stories about the dollar’s poor start to the year, which sounds alarming. But then NYT shows this graph to back up the claim and you know what, it really doesn’t seem to be all that dramatic. In fact, the very beginning of the year has been quite average, as have the last two months. It is only the period from March until mid-April that saw two unusual slumps, but does that count as “dollar having its worst start to a year since 1973”, as the NYT put it? It might, depending on your definition of “worst” and “start”, but hardly a foregone conclusion. I know that newspapers need to prepare for the slow news week with the holiday coming up, but come on. “Worst start to a year in more than 50 years” is a bit too dramatic for what the chart shows us.

What kind of data would deserve some drama? Well, again the NYT provides the perfect example with their front page news on April 2020 US unemployment data. The headline, in much deserved all-caps, says “U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT IS WORST SINCE DEPRESSION” and has the unemployed bard dip so far below anything in the past 50 years that it falls all the way down to the bottom of the front page. A true extreme value.

As an aside, if you thought you could call either “an outlier”, think again. Here is a 12-minute explainer on the difference from Pasquale Cirillo’s Log of Risk podcast but in short: outliers are impossible values, extreme values are, well, extreme but still in the realm of the possible. The dollar’s decline this year is neither but you wouldn’t know it if you just read the headlines.

Microsoft claims their new medical tool is “four times more successful than human doctors at diagnosing complex ailments”. Unsurprisingly, what they meant by “diagnosing a disease” was the thinking-hard part, not the inputs part:

To test its capabilities, “MAI-DxO” was fed 304 studies from the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) that describe how some of the most complicated cases were solved by doctors. 

This allowed researchers to test if the programme could figure out the correct diagnosis and relay its decision-making process, using a new technique called “chain of debate”, which makes AI reasoning models give a step-by-step account of how they solve problems.

If and when deployed, how likely is it that these algorithms will get a query comparable to a New England Journal of Medicine case study? Most doctors don’t reach those levels of perception and synthesis, let alone the general public.