August 13, 2023

🍿 Murder on the Orient Express (1974) was apparently the only film adaptation that Agatha Christie liked, though she thought Albert Finney’s mustache weren’t impressive enough. It’s a good movie and a remarkable cast, but I bet she would have found David Suchet’s Hercule Poirot even better.

Notes from Smith Island

Our introduction to Smith Island, Maryland was the eponymous cake. The story that came with it — accessible only by boat, sparsely populated, bird sanctuary — put it on the (long) list of places we’ll see and things we’ll do once we stop dealing with diapers, where it languished until the news of the island’s impending demise reminded us that the collective we have been out of diapers for years now, and it was the summer break, and we didn’t have anything planned for the coming weekend, and unlike 10 years ago there were now AirBnB listings, and before the day was done we had a one-night stay booked in Tylerton, One thing I realized — and I really didn’t need to go to the island for that, looking at a map would have been enough — was that a more appropriate name would have been Smith Islands. You not only need a boat to get there from the mainland, but also to jump from village to village, since the island is criss-crossed with canals. the smaller and more isolated of the three island communities.

This plaque will great you in Ewell, the largest of the three communities.

Plaque about the Smith Island Cake: "Procclamied Maryland state desert in 2008, the 8–10 layer cake has been a tradition on this island since ca. 1900."

And… yes, the demise is near, but not (only) because of climate change. There has been an exodus of people my age and younger from the island, which now has a population one tenth of what it was in the 1990s, comprised for the most part of people 60 and above.

House on Smith Island, left side is older and crumbling with a political and religious slogan sprayed on, right side seems newer but unfinished. The yard is swampy, even just beneath the house. The house seems abandoned, though the political slogan on the left would suggest otherwise. Note that it would be submerged if it weren't on brick stilts.

Most of what is left is beautiful — political slogans for the 2020 elections of the kind you would expect on the Eastern Shore notwithstanding — but the crumbling, abandoned houses whose backyards have turned into swamps are impossible to miss. In a place so overwhelmed by nature humans have to work extra hard just to keep things as they were, and while Smith Islanders have been working hard, there is just fewer and fewer of them around.

Which is a shame, because the island has been continuously populated since the 17th century and if anything humanity has more technology and more resources now to continue this unique culture. Hasn’t the Netherlands successfully fought the Atlantic ocean, never mind the quiet waters of the Chesapeake? But the Dutch have nowhere else to go, whereas there is plenty of space left in North America. Smith Island wouldn’t be the first one in Maryland to be abandoned.

But while it’s there, do go and see it. Bring bug spray. Bring cash. Bring more of both than you would have thought reasonable for a short stay. Don’t plan on walking outside much, unless that bug spray you bring is really good. If you own a boat, bring that too and don’t be reliant on the once-per-day ferry. If you don’t own a boat make sure to call captain Eddie Corbin to help you around and show you the nesting brown pelicans. And get a story ready for your kids when they see a seagull kill and eat a few of the young from the nest in front of their eyes. Like, isn’t nature grand? or some such. With or without a boat, get a Smith Island cake from Ms. Mary Ada Marshall, either directly or from the only store in town, which will also have the best soft shell crab sandwich you’ve ever had, and the best crab cake outside of Baltimore’s Faidley’s.

There is more violence on this beach than the photo would suggest.

Seagull flying in front of a group of brown pelicans with their young.

But seriously, have that bug spray with you.

The complete opposite of Smith Island: modern-day Orient Express, from Calais to Istanbul via Budapest instead of Belgrade. Five-day trip in a regular cabin starts from $25K, and it is that much per day if you choose the double-bed suite. The YouTube videos are quite something.

August 12, 2023

Infrastructure Saturdays continue with some minor tweaks to the link underlining, which should reduce visual clutter. I have also spent an unreasonable amount of time moving the infinity symbol a few pixels down. Point of diminishing returns reached!

The Atlantic has a short (true!) story about DC politics:

“It’s almost like the government’s imposing its will on its residents,” Trayon White, the D.C. council member for Ward 8, said at the council’s June 6 legislative meeting. He wasn’t talking about a proposed highway, a subway station, a power plant, or—perish the thought—an apartment building. He was talking about trees: specifically, three linden trees on Xenia Street planted a few years ago by D.C.’s Urban Forestry Division. To my surprise, the legislative body of a major American city experiencing escalating homelessness and a serious spike in violent crime dedicated a quarter of its time that day to discussing three trees.

To be clear, he wants the linden trees removed! For context: Ward 8 has a single grocery store which may be closed due to increasing costs of security.

Marginal Revolution

Three months ago I would have thought this recognize-the-scam quiz from The Washington Post was too easy, misguided, just useless. But I’ve recently seen my dad interact with the modern Web, and I strongly recommend you forward this link to anyone you know who is over 70.

August 11, 2023

"Freakonomics and global warming: What happens to a team of 'rogues' when there is no longer a stable center to push against?"

Andrew Gelman writes, under a typographical nightmare of a headline:

Back in the day, Steven Levitt was a “rogue economist,” a genial rebel who held a mix of political opinions (for example, in 2008 thinking Obama would be “the greatest president in history” while pooh-poohing concerns about recession at the time), along with some soft contrarianism (most notoriously claiming that drunk walking was worse than drunk driving, but also various little things like saying that voting in a presidential election is not so smart). Basically, he was positioning himself as being a little more playful and creative than the usual economics professor. A rogue relative to a stable norm.

I wonder how the Freakonomics team feels now, in an era of quasi-academic celebrities such as Dr. Oz and Jordan Peterson, and podcasters like Joe Rogan who push all sorts of conspiracy theories, and not just nutty but hey-why-not ideas such as UFO’s and space aliens but more dangerous positions such as vaccine denial.

Being a contrarian’s all fun and games when you’re defining yourself relative to a reasonable center, maybe not so much when you’re surrounded by crazies.

The parallel in medicine is John Ioannidis, who went from a praised debunker of bad science to a controversial “covid minimizer” without really changing his M.O. So, have their ways always been suspect, have their methods become faulty with the changing circumstances, or are they in the right even now, and it is the hyper-polarized environment to blame for our skewed perspective of their current work? I haven’t a clue.

Or you can look at it through the lens Venkatesh Rao’s field guide to the new culture wars, which is relevant even without a post-covid revision. The academic iconoclasts like Ioannidis, Levitt, et al. are useful in peacetime to serve as an internal control, strengthening the ranks or whatnot — I am not familiar enough with military culture to pick a better analogy — but become useful fools at best and traitorous collaborators at worst when the opposing sides gain in strength and start an offensive. But then, you still need some contrarians around to keep you in check. So how do you square that circle?

Well, Elon Musk helped when he destroyed Twitter. Criticizing one’s academic elders is a centuries-long tradition, tolerated and at times promoted, provided one didn’t do it out in the open. But saying anything to “civilians” — only there are no civilians in the culture wars, just potential alias and foes — is… was… is unseemly.

For better or worse, the barricades are on their way back, the indisciminate co-mingling of ideologies is waning, and (a different set of) iconoclasts will again find their groove. So it goes…

“The American Board of Internal Medicine is under fire for a ‘maintenance of certification’ requirement. Their own tweet didn’t help.":

Frustration among physicians who feel they are being asked to do increasingly more to prove their competency has been building for years and in recent weeks, boiled over for many. At least 12,000 people have signed a Change.org petition, which is open to anyone. Many added their name after the petition’s organizer resurfaced a July tweet in which ABIM suggested their ongoing certification was so easy, doctors could do it while on vacation.

I have been meaning to write about ABIM’s train wreck ever since I signed the petition, but yet again my proscratination has been awarded: Philadelphia Inquirer says everything I wanted to, and then some. Ding-dong…

Back when I had to commute from Baltimore to Bethesda via DC’s Union Station every day (don’t ask) I would obsess about which train car I should enter so that I exit just in front of the right escalator. Yesterday, a Good Samaritan and fellow commute optimizer posted the layouts of every DC metro station to the Washington DC subreddit. If only I could send this back to my 2014 self!

August 10, 2023

The most fascinating aspect of Tyler Cowen’s interview with Paul Graham is how many times Graham admits to not knowing, in a way that makes you think he may know a bit more than he is letting on. I’d attribute it to his age, but I know many elder doctors and scientists who’d rather die than say there was something they didn’t know.