A tornado warning for DC, and another day of 80mph winds. The one las week was a doozy! What was the micro.blog climate emoji, again? 🧨?

Update: It was fine.

Tylerton, Smith Island, Maryland. Yes, that Smith Island.

🍿 Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (2023) is a better sign of Pixar’s fall from relevancy than their box office bomb that wasn’t (and which, NB, we haven’t seen yet). Ruby…, you see, is one of many recent animated movies influenced by Spider-Verse… for style and The Mitchells… for substance. I would rather have watched either of those for the umpteenth time than Ruby… this once, but it was set under water so the kids liked it.

I’ve been down on D.C. recently so I’d like to make one thing clear: it is a great city to live in, work in, and visit, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise (you know who they are).

1. It wasn’t the movie I wanted to see. The best, most dramatic parts, the ones that people (where by “people” I mean myself) actually cared for were in Los Alamos and centered around the atomic bomb. So Nolan chose the wrong book to make into a movie: it is all about the bomb, not the man.
2. Or, if you are to be so anthropocentric, why make it about only one man? The Manhattan project featured so many colorful, smart, obnoxious characters that it would have been the perfect ensemble movie. Have Wes Anderson do it (although, yes, he kind of did). Have Aaron Sorkin do it! Because Nolan will inevitably turn everything he touches into a puzzle box, and…
3. this time, his puzzle is pretty puny. There is a moment near the end of the second act which felt like a parody of an M. Night Shyamalan twist. “I knew it, it was X all along”, she screams and throws her glass on the floor in a culmination of… nothing much, actually. Because what is revealed was obvious, and there is nothing leading up to that moment that would make you think anyone was even paying attention to some milquetoast backdoor machinations. It felt like a piece of film got lost on the cutting room floor. Maybe that’s the twist?
4. Hans Zimmer was not involved in the making of the score, though you could have fooled me. Having a movie set in the 1930s through the 1960s feature only the migraine-inducing synthetic throb of Gotham’s best instead of some period music, even during the (many) party scenes, was a choice for choice’s sake and a stupid one at that.
5. To be clear, the cinematography is wonderful, the casting of Mr. and Mrs. Oppenheimer perfect, and dear oh dear wasn’t that scene with Gary Oldman just marvelous? They deserve all the praise and awards they will likely get, if the juries still remember them by the time the awards season comes because there are at least two more potentially great movies to watch out for. What a great time for cinema.

I vaguely remember learning about The Curator’s Code from Marco Arment’s blog and sharing his lack of enthusiasm: I still don’t quite grasp the difference between “via” (ᔥ per the Code) and “hat tip” (↬). But 10 years later, why not give it a shot? ↬Tedium.

By the way, if you — like me — have been wondering why the Brain Pickings RSS feed has gone silent, well wonder no more: two years ago it had a rebrand and is now The Marginalian. Being otherwise preocupied at the time I must have missed it.

And if you’ve never heard of Brain Pickings before, well, you’re in for a treat. ↬Tedium.

Economists are prone to making hypotheses about other fields that make perfect sense to them and others outside of the field, but that can be easily refuted to anyone with an iota of relevant field-specific knowledge. And not just economists. This very sentence is, in fact, one such hypothesis.

But to get to the point: Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution wrote a post titled Left Digit Bias in Medicine which excerpted his WSJ review of Random Acts of Medicine which is a book about “The Hidden Forces That Sway Doctors, Impact Patients, and Shape Our Health”, which is, believe it or not, part of the title. ⊕ I hate, hate, hate what book titles have become. This is the literary equivalent of the Amazon product name trash recently discussed on ATP. SEO for books as an externality of Amazon’s dominance — who would have guessed?

Now, I haven’t read the book yet, and the WSJ is behind a paywall, so I only have the excerpt to go by, but it is long and it is sufficient. I won’t quote from it — 4th level of abstraction would be too much — but I will copy the figure and make a few comments. You should read the blog post itself, it is good.

1. This is the biggest and the most obvious regression discontinuity I have seen, and it has a reasonable explanation. Kudos.
2. Age is plotted as a continuous variable. This is not how doctors see the patient’s age in their medical record. It is shown as an integer, not a fraction, so someone who is a day shy of their 40th birthday will look just the same as someone who just turned 39. And if the guidelines say you should do something for a 40-year-old but not for a 39-year-old, that’s what most doctors — let’s hope — will do.
3. This is therefore not left-digit bias.
4. While the date of birth is also part of the medical record, it is rarely if ever looked at by MDs — except just prior to an invasive procedure that requires a timeout. It is often checked by nurses prior to administering medications, and they are often the ones who will note that an inpatient’s birthday is coming up.
5. Tabarrok has buried the lead in his blog post. Regardless of the cause, the discontinuity is there and can be used as pseudo-rendomization for a natural experiment of the effect of “testing for heart attacks” (I will guess by that the others meant an ECG and troponin levels) on outcomes. The entire last paragraph of the excerpt is about that, and I 100% endorse the idea.